Gains from Commitment: The Case for Pegging the Exchange Rate

Abstract

This paper argues that the exchange rate regime matters for inflation and economic activity, with substantial benefits arising from a currency peg. At the heart of these benefits lies an increase in credibility that reduces the inflationary bias once central banks commit to peg their currency to a credible anchor. Using an open economy model, we provide a credibility estimate for 170 economies for 1950-2019 which aligns with other central bank independence measures. We document that committing to a peg persistently lowers inflation and its volatility while increasing real growth. Less credible countries benefit more from fixing the exchange rate.

Publication
Revise and Resubmit at the Journal of International Money and Finance